Micor$oft Zune Will not Affect Apple

Opinion: Why Microsoft’s Zune scares Apple to the core

Good reasons why the iPod can be unseated as the media player powerhouse are numerous. Why Microsoft shills insist on ignoring these good reasons poses as a mystery. After all, Microsoft pays these people to generate the good publicity that unbiased technical reviews of Microsoft products rarely do. So, is it the case that Microsoft is stupid enough to hire stupid shills, or is it that their products are so crappy that even the most obedient shills find nothing good to say about them. Let’s parse the above article to demonstrate the point.

Mike Elgan is clearly a Microsoft shill. That’s why Cnet, to its credit, classifies Elgan’s rants as opinion. (Contrast this with the asinine Fox “News” attempts to mask propaganda as news.) What is strange is that he proceeds to bash the company he is paid to promote.

Let’s take his first point about Zune’s features.

30GB hard drive, peer-to-peer Wi-Fi connectivity, a 3-in. screen (320-by-240-pixel QVGA viewable in either portrait or landscape mode), an FM tuner that will display song information from stations that broadcast a Radio Broadcast Data Standards (RBDS)

How many people will watch movies on their Zune? Not many. So, the better screen is simply an increased loss for Microsoft. Wi-Fi connectivity? As if the RIAA would ever allow people to swap music anywhere, anytime. This is almost certainly a useless feature that only serves to allow Microsoft to say that they offer features that Apple doesn’t. It’s like driving a Ferrari in LA. Sure, you got all those horses, but you’ll never go faster than the 25 mph traffic. When the RIAA is choking its customers every which way it can, what use will a wi-fi connection be? So, all of Zune’s nifty features are for all intents and purposes worthless. They add no value to the product.

The radio tuner is nice, but it’s probably fair to say that 99% of people who spend hundreds of dollars on a media player do so to avoid the garbage on commercial radio. So, this is not a significant selling point.

The second point is rather bizarre

Microsoft will make the movement of media between Windows, Soapbox and the Zune natural and seamless. The Zune interface is just like a miniature version of the Windows Media Center user interface and is very similar to some elements of Vista.

Again, Microsoft can make it as seamless as the trade associations will allow. And, who are the people who find the Windows Media Center–indeed, any Windows Media or Microsoft–user interface easy to use? Microsoft is the master of creating hopelessly complicated GUIs. Put iTunes next to WMP and see which one is easier to use. So, again, these are hardly selling points for the Zune.

Who cares if Microsoft is creating a perfect “media storm” and leveraging its Xbox? iPod and iTunes Music Store already offer more capabilities than the initial Zune package will. Apple is selling iPods to everyone from college students to morons like George W Bush. It’s hard to imagine that a bunch of Xbox geeks will translate into a marketing bonanza for Microsoft.

The next point is utterly perplexing.

The rise of social networks like MySpace.com and viral Web 2.0 sites like that of YouTube Inc. have transformed the expectations of young people about sharing and using media. In the context of these trends, Apple is old school. But the Zune, with its peer-to-peer wireless file sharing, is both social and viral.

Again, given Microsoft’s history of ripping its industry partners off, why would the RIAA, MPAA, and other industry groups allow people to swap music with the Zune? But, fine, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that they do decide to allow Microsoft to allow users to annihilate the profits on digital music sales. Do any studies exist that say that people are dying to do this? It’s easy to swap music with friends, but I have not done so with any. I have had opportunities to acquire tens of gigabytes of music from friends, but it’s too much of a pain. My own library is already too big. The occasional teaser from a friend is usually enough. Will this be viral? Who knows? There are plenty of viral business models that fall short of contagion, let alone a pandemic.

Elgan next contends that Zune “may offer more programming.” Well, it may, but how stupid would entertainment companies be to limit distribution to one channel? Furthermore, if Apple can convince its customers to pay a higher price for the programming and thus deliver a higher profit to the content providers, why would they choose to go with Microsoft? This notion that content providers will willingly limit themselves to one distribution channel is absurd. Once digital distribution is accepted, programmers will distribute their content through many outlets, including Zune Marketplace and Apple iTMS. This is not an advantage for either company. It’s the direction the world is going in. The market is big, and there will be room for many players, with Apple, Microsoft, Real and Wal-Mart as the most prominent players.

Elgan’s next points simply border on stupidity.

4. Zune’s screen is better for movies.

Apple’s tiny screen is so high-quality that people are willing to watch full-length movies on it.The Zune’s screen is just as good as the iPod’s, but larger. It’s so large it must be turned sideways for viewing in “landscape mode.” This additional screen real estate makes Zune vastly superior for watching movies and TV shows

5. Zune is actually pretty cool.

The Zune is unlike any product Microsoft has ever shipped. It’s actually very nicely designed, surprisingly minimalist and (dare I say it?) “cool.”

We have no idea how many people will use the small screen to watch movies or use the devices to watch on their TVs. So, why on earth would a better screen matter? Furthermore, the Zune does not exist yet. So, how could it be cool? It took the iPod 3 years of cultivation among college students to acquire the cool status. Why on earth would the Zune achieve it overnight?

The emphasis on design makes it clear that Microsoft is copying (as usual) the iPod. Hence, the question arises: will the replica supplant the original? What Microsoft shills–indeed, Microsoft the corporation–fail to understand is that Microsoft replicas of successful products rarely make for successful ventures anymore. Microsoft is trying to make a a better iPod, not a better product. This is why the Zune will not kill the iPod. It is not an original product. It does not seek to address needs that the iPod does not fulfill. Ultimately, this is why Microsoft is a lousy company. The emphasis is always on imitation, not innovation. Apple is most likely flattered by this imitation, not frightened by it. If you don’t believe me, read this guy, or this guy

And, maybe that’s why Microsoft shills are never convincing: Microsoft’s entire product line is unimpressive.

Florida Redux

AP Wire | 10/10/2006 | U.S. forms task force to crack down on Cuba sanction violators

Surprise, surprise, surprise! The GOP elects to pander to Cubans in Florida again when elections arrive. If campaign slogans were truthful, the GOP’s would read

We destroyed the economy. We lost Iraq. We made Iran more powerful. We encouraged the proliferation of nuclear weapons. We disrupted an international order that was generating wealth for the US. BUT, we did manage to punish a few small businesses who were selling things to a third world country we don’t like.

And, thank God that they did! Thank God, indeed.

Who is Paying Your Policitians’ Salaries?

If no, then now you can find out exactly.

LegiStorm – The Web’s only source for congressional staff salaries

Of course, one only gets the sinking feeling that many perks suddenly cease to be classified as compensation, and this site will become worthless.

But, until then…

Measuring Success

Marketplace: Let’s be objective about pulling out of Iraq

What is true is that the General Accountability Office has had an unassailable record as a disinterested assessor of the country’s affairs. The GAO is usually media shy for reasons that are well understood. They carry studies and investigations, and they release the results to the government and the public at large, and they let their findings speak for themselvs. This low-profile behavior is entirely consistent with the mission of a non-partisan body. This is why the GAO is venerated.

So, you know things are bad when the head of the GAO, the Comptroller General, feels the need to publicly warn against drawing any conclusions about how the Iraqi conflict is unraveling. It should be alarming when Mr. David Walker (our Comptroller General) asserts that we are dispensing with the process of gauging success altogether. In other words, although metrics exist for assessing the situation, the US government is either ignoring them or refusing to apply the metrics. Therefore, we cannot know whether what we are doing in Iraq will ever meet success.

Ignorance is bliss, as they say, but this bliss will be short-lived. As William Sloan Coffin said, “Hell is truth seen too late.” If we can measure our progress to success, then we can move forward confidently. If we insist on blindly working toward failure, then our standing as a global power will be lost forever. The former scenario is logical, essential. The latter scenario is unthinkable. Absent good metrics, as Mr. Walker states, we don’t know the scenario in which we live.

Is ignorance bliss?

Typical Day in Baghdad

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Shooting victims found in Baghdad

As the drumbeat of “staying the course” in Iraq and not “cutting and running” drowns out the voices of reality in Iraq, the daily calamities that befall the miserable masses of the cradle of modern civilization are erased from the minds of those who march willingly to this tune. Lost with the memories are reasons for pursuing the conflict further. Lost is compassion for people who die daily for a conflict that was not of their choosing. Lost is the sense of purpose that ought to drive our resolve.

At first American blood was to be shed for the purposes of democracy. Now it is being shed for the purpose of halting an increasingly hardened and horribly violent insurgency. When the Iraqi prime minister makes a formal visit to Ahmadinejad in Iran, Democracy is a perverse fantasy, and there is no victory to be claimed when the death toll from the insurgency rises daily.

The drums beat, the soldiers march, and the cradle of modern civilization is destroyed. Who is more pitiable? The Iraqis who die daily, or the inured soldiers who have no sight of the destination to which they charge?

Giving Up the Search

Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | CIA attacked by agent who led Bin Laden hunt

Ah, what a dated story. It’s hardly news anymore, but it is worth mentioning, nevertheless. Yes, the fight against terror continues, but without any attention to capturing the chief terrorist, the one who has taken all the responsibility for 9/11, and the one who seems to be inspiring others to take arms against the US, still.

Yet we are told that the “war against terror” rages on. The Teflontm Don only dreamed of this level of protection.

Scientific Accuracy

Scientists OK Gore’s movie for accuracy – Yahoo! News

Will this end the frustrations of the scientists and activists who have dedicated entire careers to learn about the planet, about its climate and about man’s role as the sole steward of the environment?

With knowledge comes responsibility. Those who shun knowledge shun responsibility. Anyone who can understand this truth will understand the difference between George Bush and Al Gore (or any rational human being, for that matter.)

Mortality Rates for Journalists and British Soldiers in Iraq

The Guardian blog has a poignant piece about the number of dead journalists in Iraq.
The fact of the matter from Guardian Unlimited: News blog

What is striking is that the number of dead journalists, 127, is lower than the number of British military casualties in Iraq, 113. This number, 113, is shockingly lower than the more than 2500 for the American military (at the time of the article’s writing). Hence, the number of British casualties is roughly 5% of the number of American casualties.

This may sound reasonable, but looking at some estimates of numbers–like this one in Washington Post National Weekly Edition–the number of British troops is roughly 10% of that of American troops. Hence, assuming that the number of contingents from each country has not changed much, the American casualty rate is about 2500/135000, or 1.8%, while the British rate is 113/10000, or 1.1%. This means that the British casualty rate is almost 40% lower.

Could this be because the British are administering more “peaceful” areas? Hardly. After all, Basra is hardly a calm place. Certainly, the American contingent is administering larger, more violent regions like Baghdad, but this alone cannot explain why the casualty rate is so much higher. American and British forces are partners in this campaign, but the British troops have not been targeted as avidly as the American troops. This is indubitably due to the fact that they have not committed as many stupid acts like Abu Ghraib to invite anger and violence.

It is possible that British troops are better equipped than their American counterparts. Rather, that they have armored vehicles at all.

Crooks and Liars

Crooks and Liars

Metals are conductors of electricity. They sometimes conduct heat very well, also. Graphite is a metal that conducts electricity well, but heat poorly. If one were to view mankind as a similar medium that can conduct a current, what would be that substance that mankind conducts? What would it be that it does not conduct, or the substance that it insulates? Judging by the stupidity of this US Representative, one is reminded again that humanity is often a superb conveyor of ignorance and moral depravity.

Global Warming is Still True

National panel supports ’98 global warming evidence – The Boston Globe

Yes, yet another scientific panel has concluded that global warming is real and man made. Whether this will place pressure on politicians to speed up the glacial pace at which they address environmental issues is unknown.

The following graph, published in the Boston Globe, ought to relieve any doubts that people harbored about the reality of global warming. This single graph represents 10,000 years of data. It would be so nice for the doubters of global warming to produce a single graph that either corrects or contradicts this valuable graph.

Mean Global Temperature 1000-1998 A.D.